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Friday, August 29, 2003
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CLINTON 44?
Political junkies everywhere were intrigued by this report yesterday. Senator Hillary Clinton is reportedly nearing a final decision as to whether to launch a presidential campaign in 2004. I know what you're thinking, "hasn't Hillary already made that decision? Didn't she say that she 'had no plans to run for president' when she was out touting that horrible book of hers last month?" And you would be right to think that. But you would come to the wrong conclusion. Her statement was not a categorical declaration that she would not run, merely that she had no plans to. I "had no plans" to lose my job and, guess what? I did. Besides, its not like someone named Clinton hasn't lied before.
If Senator Clinton decides to enter the race, which she would have to do very soon to meet filing deadlines, she would do so on the pretext that there is no clear front-runner to challenge President Bush. Actually, there is a front-runner. His name is Howard Dean. Howard Dean scares the unholy hell out of the Democratic Party establishment. Democrats have all heard about the glee with which Karl Rove (Bush's chief political strategist) looks forward to a run against Dean. Former Governor Dean of Vermont is raising a shitload of money despite making Al Gore look like James Brown and only being slightly better known than I am. Dean is currently ahead of the presumed front-runner, Senator John Kerry, by 25 points in New Hampshire.
The logic goes like this; if Dean gets the nomination, Bush will crush him like a beer can next November. Therefore, Dean must be stopped. Now. Who can do that? None of the current contenders have shown any traction against Dean. That leaves Hillary who can step forward and declare that in, the interest of saving the party from itself, must step away from her earlier pledge.
But can Hillary win? This is where things get tricky. The nomination is hers the second she enters the race. But can she win in a general election?
Hillary's 2000 senate race is instructive in answering this question. Hillary Clinton grew up in Illinois and spent her adult life in Arkansas. Which senate seat did she run for? New York's. Why? Because she could win there. She almost certainly would have lost in Arkansas or Illinois. New York is one of maybe five states where Hillary is viewed as being electable, the others being California, Massachusettes, Minnesotta and Vermot. Those five states give the junior senator from New York about 130 electoral votes (maybe 140, I'm too lazy to do the math right now). Impressive, yes but she needs 270 to win.
Everytime someone has told me that Hillary will be president, I've answered with the same question; name five states she can win. I'm the only person I know of who's been able to. The president is unchallengeable in the 11 former states of the confederacy. With the re-election of his brother as Governor, Florida can be more reliably put in his column than it was in 2000. Ohio is traditionally Republican. Arizona has voted for a Democrat exactly once since 1948 (President Clinton in 1996). Christ, Bush won West Virginia last time out.
For Clinton to come anywhere close to winning a general election she would have to win ALL of the following states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey,Conneticutt, Maryland, Missouri, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington.These are states where she can concievably win, given voting patterns over the last 60 years. But she has to win them all. Can she? I don't think so. But I've been wrong about these things before.
Will Hillary Clinton run next year? She'd be insane to if Bush doesn't drop below 40% approval in each of those individual battleground states. Ignore national numbers, those are meaningless this early and Clinton has to make a decision in the next six weeks. I can't see that happening.
I don't think you'll see a "Clinton 43" anytime soon. But I'd love to see the race. It'd be a lot more fun to watch than the ass-kicking that will be a Bush/Dean race. Look for Hillary in '08, when she runs against either Rudolph Gulliani or Condelezza Rice. That will be a fun race, too.
But who knows? I've been wrong about these things before.
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