|
|
Thursday, December 30, 2004
|
|
HOW TO GET AHEAD IN TERRORISM WITHOUT EVEN TRYING
You know, it has gotten to the point where you can't know as an absolute certainty that its a special time of the year unless we get a tape from Osama bin Laden. Presidential elections and now Christmas both seem to have become Groundhog Day for the al-Qaeda leader.
But something about this tape is a little different. Instead of the familiar "death to America, death to Israel, yadda, yadda, yadda" rants of days gone by, bin Laden has mellowed somewhat. Indeed, it appears that between atrocities, Osama's gone to finishing school. In a way, its good to see that he's maximizing his dyalisis time. Perhaps he'll follow up with his first book, "The Seven Habits of Highly Effective Lunatics."
Osama seems to be branching out from being a mere delivery boy of mindless violence and becoming something of a political strategist. Perhaps this first occurred in Madrid, where al-Qaeda overthrew a government with it's shocking brutality. But there was little subtlety in Madrid, just a big "Ka-fucking-Blam" and a socialist was sworn into office.
Any political operative will tell you that politics operates on a "base-plus" formula. First, you create and solidify a base of support that will never abandon you and will indeed grow more ferverant as you radicalize. Then you expand past that base through moderation. Ronald Reagan seemingly invented this.
For someone who deplores American politics so much, bin Laden seems to have its lessons.
Of late, bin Laden has been moderating his message as to better reach the average "Mohammed in the street." That he has captured the impoverished, the illeterate and the furiously insane, is beyound doubt. But what about the Arab with the ascot and the subscription to the New Yorker? This is seemingly where al Qaeda wants to expand its reach. And talk of endless jihad and rivers of blood is unbecoming to the more sophisticated class.
Accordingly, bin Laden is now wading into the political waters ever deeper. And, as much as I hate to admit it, he's a pretty good political tactician. As could have been predicted, Muslim resentment over the democratization of Iraq is building and al Qaeda seems poised to exploit it. The U.S government is holding stubbornly firm to the January 30 date for Iraqi national elections despite the growing chaos in the country. And this could well be the perfect tool for al-Qaeda.
The call for Sunni non-participation in the elections is strategically wise from their perspective. A Sunni boycott will guarantee a Shia dominated government and produce a perfect target for both bin Laden and the Iraqi insurgency.
The religious conflicts in Iraq are timeless and especially vicious. Should the Sunnis be under represented in the new government - for whatever reason - one can reasonably assume that this will garner broader popular support for the insurgency. Such an expansion of the insurgent base has the ripple effect of further humiliating the United States and undermining its goal of a "peaceful, stable, democratic Iraq."
Americans may not be aware of this, but on the great list of people that al-Qaeda wishes to destroy, they only barely crack the top five. Apostate Muslims and Jews both come well ahead of Americans. But the people al-Qaeda loathes more than any other are the Shia. bin Laden's strategy, combined with U.S stubborness on the election date, are providing the perfect Shia target to unify Sunni rage and, better still, possibly draw Iran into the morass of Iraq. If Iran can be seen as working in common cause with the Americans to suppress the Sunnis, all the better.
Say what you will about bin Laden, but if I'm right, this is pretty sophisticated political strategy.
Of course, one can never afford to alienate the base - the bloodthirsty psychopaths who have been there since day one. They need some red meat, too. And they got it the promotion of Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi to the head al-Qaeda bananna in Iraq. Sure, people thought all that barbaric, senseless beheading would lead to condemnation and revulsion. But Zarqawi knew it was more than a passion, it was a career path.
Several Bush administration officials have stated for the record that al-Qaeda's ability to launch attacks in the United States has been effectively destroyed. I would argue that this is beside the point. If there's one thing that 9/11 proved, its that the senseless murder of American civilians made the United States stronger, not weaker. But Iraq is a highly divisive issue.
If al-Qaeda can create a wholly unrepresentative, and therefore inherently undemocratic, government in Iraq, it has created Vietnam. Such a government cannot defend itself while maintaining even the pretense of democracy. This means that the United States will have no other choice but to do it for them, just as it did in Vietnam. And I think we all remember how that worked out.
I was never one who argued that the initial war in Iraq was "another Vietnam." The challenges in Southeast Asia were never military, they were political. And the political conditions are now being created where the Green Zone can very quickly become a smaller-scale Saigon.
Hopefully, I'm wrong about all of this. But I'm not getting that vibe yet.
Permalink
|
|
|
| |
