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Sunday, March 07, 2004
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SOMETHING ELSE NOBODY BUT ME WILL CARE ABOUT
Regardless of what anybody tells you, don't believe that President Bush will dump Vice-President Dick Cheney from the '04 ticket. There's been a big rumor floated in the last couple of weeks that Cheney will "withdraw" from the ticket, citing health concerns and he would be replaced by former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani. That will never happen. Say what you will about the Bush family (and I happen to like the father a lot more than I like the son), but they are extremely loyal. Besides, Cheney is far to popular with the religious kooks that Bush has just expended so much political capital courting with that offensive Federal Marriage Amendment to been seen as being ruthlessly discarded. Cheney is staying exactly where he is. People who tell so many jokes about losing their jobs have a tendency of holding on to them. By the way, when did Cheney get funny?
Attorney General John Ashcroft, however, is quite another story. Ashcroft scares the living shit out of a lot of right-thinking people. The guy doesn''t even dance for Christ's sakes! And then there's the baptism by Crisco thing. Ascroft also has a campaign finance problem that won't go away. Ashcroft, at this point, is a cauldron of political liabilities. What good will he do in a campaign? None! Let's not forget that this is a guy who actually, honest to God, lost his Senate seat to a corpse. Being defeated by a dead man has a tendency of not inspiring confidence in political professionals.
The timing is also fortuitous. Ashcroft is currently in intensive care. All Bush need do is have a "come to Jesus" meeting with Ashcroft, and you could well see him on the cross by the end of the month.
This is where Guiliani comes in. While he said as recently as this morning that he did not expect Cheney to go anywhere and he was undecided about running for president in '08, Nothing at all was said about his becoming attorney general. Guiliani is the polar opposite of Ashcroft. He remains among the most popular Republicans in the country. The only people who hate him are black people, due to the NYPD's proclivity for shooting blacks when he was mayor and the Religious Right, who hate him for being pro-choice. These aren't necessarily negatives. The God Squad should be placated by Bush's support of the FMA and the fact that Cheney's still in town and black people are famous for not voting for Republicans.
As a matter of fact, Guiliani's moderate views might just put Independents into play. People who afraid of what Bush might do with social policy generally and the Supreme Court in particular, might be reassured with Rudy on the team. Rudy also reminds people of steady leadership on 9/11. Guiliani, as a former U.S Attorney for the Southern District of New York -who made his name prosecuting white collar crime- is supremely qualified for the job and would go through his confirmation hearings like beer through a college student.
If Bush wins in November (and I suspect that he will) there is no heir apparent in the Republican Party. Cheney has believed for years that he will never be president. The president may think that his brother, Governor Jeb Bush of Florida might get the nomination, but most serious people don't. Guiliani could run quite comfortably from the cabinet, particularly a post separated from the economy and foreign policy, two issues that tend to kick a candidate from an incumbent administration straight in the nuts. Running from the Cabinet isn't a novel as it sounds. Herbert Hoover was Secretary of Commerce when he was elected. This could be the dream race, Guiliani/Clinton. While cabinet officers running for president is rare, Senators running isn't. And Senator's almost always lose.
If I'm right, and I only just had this idea, it'll probably happen before the congressional recess in June. Bush could use the good headlines of a speedy Guiliani confirmation in the Senate. Then, it's campaign time. Assuming, you know, that Kerry is even in the country. I'll probably write about why this is a bad idea later. Or not. Who knows? I have drinking to do tonight and a job interview tomorrow.
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