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Tuesday, July 27, 2004
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HOLY SHIT
Acording to my projections, John Kerry stands to be elected president in November. Below are the states that I'm projecting for each candidate and the number of electoral votes for each.
Kerry States
Alaska (3), California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), West Virginia (5), Wisconsin (10)
Total Kerry Electoral Votes: 272
Bush States
Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (20), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), Wyoming (3)
Total Bush Electoral Votes: 266
Of course, this is close enough that if I'm wrong about even one state (like say, New Mexico or Nevada), it throws the entire election the other way. But this is uncomfortably close.
Which means I'm going to have to go state by state over the last 60 years and figure out if I'm wrong, where.
The calculations were done here.
UPDATE 4:51pm: Hmm, this is an interesting article on Wayne County, Michigan, which may actually make the state too close to call. Apparently, there are also serious rifts in the state Democratic Party, and rumours of a Republican attempt to surpress the Detroit vote. And then there's stupid Kerry moves like this. I'd still give the state to Kerry, but I'm a lot less confident about it now.
I've done some checking on West Virginia and, considering that it's a state of coal miners, it only goes Republican in massive landslides, such as 1956, 1972, and 1984. Even in big national wins, like 1952, 1980 and 1988, West Virginia stays with the Democrats. Unless, Kerry actually marries Edwards at the convention, it's a safe state for the Democrats. Bush winning there in 2000 was a historical anomoly.
UPDATE 5:16pm: There have been a few states that I've gone back and checked on. Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. I checked Electoral College maps going back to 1952 here.
Those totals are as follows;
-Michigan went Democratic in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1968, 1964 and 1960. It went Republican in 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1956 and 1952. Of those 13 elections, it went with the winner in 9.
-Pennsylvania went with the Democrats in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1976, 1968, 1964 and 1960. It went Republican in 1988, 1984, 1980, 1972, 1956 and 1952. Of those 13 elections, it went with the winner in 11.
-New Mexico went with the Democrats in 2000, 1996, 1992, 1964 and 1960. It went Republican in 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1956 and 1952. Of those 13 elections, it went with the winner in 11.
-Missouri has famously gone with the winner in 12 of the 13 elections, the only deviation was when it went for Stevenson in 1956.
-Nevada has has gone Democrat in 1996, 1992, 1964 and 1960. It went Republican in 2000, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976, 1972, 1968, 1956 and 1952. Of the 13 elections, it matches Missouri's record, going only with the loser, President Gerald Ford, in 1976.
These five states all voted together 96, 92, 88, 84, 80, 72, 60 and 52. In all 8 of those elections, it went with the winner. If I'm wrong anywhere, it's with one of these states. If it's Michigan or Pennsylvania, Bush wins. If it's one of the other three, Kerry wins bigger than I thought.
UPDATE: 6:19pm: Oh, what the fuck, since Karl suggested it - and because I'm feeling particularly chi-chi - let's look at New Hampshire. They love a Republican winner, having gone with Eisenhower in '52 and '56, Nixon in '68 and '72, Reagan in '80 and '84, Bush 41 in '88 and 43 in 2000 (barely.) In a close race, NH will go with the Republican having voted for Nixon in '60 and Ford in '76. It has to be an asshole blowout of a landslide for New Hampshire to go with a Democrat, like they did with LBJ in '64 or Clinton in '92 or '96.
Of the 13 elections cited, New Hampshire went with the winner in 10 of them.
If Bush has any hope, he'd better win this big and win it early. Given the mood out there, I'd give it to Kerry. But it could well be too close to call.
In any event, I'll revise this as we get closer to the debates.
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