|
|
Friday, August 13, 2004
|
|
ASK skippy, PART FIVE
I just received the following query from the lovely and talented Kilgore Trout.
The following situation wandered into my head the other day: suppose Kerry beats Bush in November. Then suppose Kerry goes on to have an unimpressive term with consistently low approval ratings. Meanwhile, the charismatic John Edwards becomes an insanely popular vice president, and challenges Kerry for the nomination in 2008.
Likely? Unlikely? Has it ever happened? What was the outcome? Enlighten us, O scholar of presidential elections.
Interesting question, Kilgore. One that requires my burrowing into my barely passable knowledge of American history. And since I've been either drunk or weeping for a week, I may miss a few things. I'm also very stupid, any detailed examination of my love life will bear this out. So bear with me. I appreciate your patience.
In the early days of the republic, the was no such thing a "presidential ticket." Anyone who got past the third grade (which I did, barely) knows that, prior to 1804, the vice presidency went to whoever came second in the electoral college. It was not uncommon for the vice president to be of a different political party than president.
The first such race occurred in 1800 when the second president of the United States, John Adams (a Federalist) was challenged by his vice president, Thomas Jefferson (a Democratic Republican.) Jefferson handily beat Adams in the Electoral College. Had he not have, Adams would have become Jefferson's vice president - an office he had previously held under George Washington. Jefferson was, however, tied with the murderous Aaron Burr and the presidency was decided in the House of Representatives.
Off the top of my head (and because I'm actually far too depressed and hung over to check), the only other challenge of a president by a sitting vice president was in 1940. Franklin Roosevelt was seeking an unprecedented third term. Many people, particularly in the Democratic party, felt this was deeply wrong. Roosevelt was challenged for the nomination by his first (of three) vice president, John Nance Garner. Garner, who once famously described the vice presidency as being "not worth a bucket of warm piss", was destroyed at the convention and the Secretary of Agriculture, Henry Wallace was picked to be Roosevelt's running mate.
This has not happened since for two reasons. Firstly, the vice president has no independent power base of his own while the president has the Rose Garden. Secondly, renomination is the president's for the asking. The last time a sitting president was denied renomination was about 120 years ago. In fact, the leading indicator of a president losing re-election is if he is challenged for the nomination. This is what happened to Lyndon Johnson in '68 (challenged by Senator Eugene McCarthy), Gerald Ford in '76 (challenged by former California governor Ronald Reagan), Jimmy Carter in '80 (challenged by Senator Ted Kennedy) and George Bush in '92 (challenged by commentator and psychopath Pat Buchanan.) Johnson announced that he would not run and the others were defeated in the general election.
While this is not on point to Kilgore's question, perhaps the most interesting election in American history was in 1912. When President Theodore Roosevelt decided not to seek re-election in 1908, he assured that his VP, William Howard Taft would assume the office. TR was a populist reformer and Taft was a traditional Republican. Roosevelt was mightily discouraged by the direction President Taft was taking the country and challenged him for the 1912 Republican nomination. When he was defeated, TR ran as a Populist, or "Bull Moose" candidate.
Roosevelt's candidacy split the Republican vote and cleared the way for New Jersey governor Woodrow Wilson to be elected. Of course, this was before New Jersey governors were homosexuals. Taft was handed the worst defeat of a sitting president in American history, winning only 8 electoral votes. The only states he carried were Utah and Vermont. This is only the second instance of a former president challenging a sitting president, the first being when the mightily moustahioed former president, Grover Cleveland won back the White House from his successor, the powerfully bearded Benjamin Harrison in 1892.
Could Edwards, as vice president, challenge a hypothetical President Kerry for the nomination? Yes, there is historical precedent for that. However, a sitting vice president has never beaten the president for his party's nomination. In fact, being a sitting vice president is the easiest way to ensure that one does not become president. The only sitting vice president's to be elected president in their own right are Adams, Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Taft and George H.W Bush. The only former vice president to become president was Richard Nixon and the only defeated vice presidential candidate to later become president was the running mate of Senator James Cox in 1920, FDR.
So could it happen? Sure. But it won't.
Jesus Christ, I'm adorable. I just did that all of off the top of my head. It's unfortunate that this doesn't much impress the ladies. I really need to get laid.
Hopefully, someone will ask me something cool, like my views on sexual fidelity in a committed relationship. That would be fun to write about.
And with that, I go back to drinking and weeping.
UPDATE - SATURDAY AUGUST 14, 2004: Okay, so it's five o'clock on a Sturday morning and since the normal distractions provided a normal human being, such as sleeping and having sex are unavailable to me, I checked some of the assertions I provided above.
I made a factual error. Taft was never vice president. He was the Secretary of War. I stand before you all with the evidence of what I've long believed, that I'm a moron. I probably shouldné be allowed to have a blog.
Should any of you feel that you need to the right thing, please contact Judy. She can provide you with my address and you can come up here and and shoot me in the face.
Since there are people out there who rely on me to provide them useless information, this is highly embarrassing. In fact, I can't think of a reason that I deserve to live.
Please kill me.
|
|
|
| |
