|
|
Thursday, September 09, 2004
|
|
OPPSIES...
As some of you might remember, I made an Electoral College projection back on July 27. According to those calculations, I awarded John Kerry the presidency with an EC score of 272 to the President's 266.
There are a couple of things that I should note about that projection. Firstly, I ignored current polling. Most of the polls in the battleground states I cited were too close to be useful and too far away from election day to matter. Instead, I looked at election trends since 1960. I also only looked at tight battleground states. Oh, as I remember it, I was also drinking heavily about then.
For my forgetful readers, here are my 07/27/04 projections.
Kerry StatesAlaska (3), California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), West Virginia (5), Wisconsin (10)
Total Kerry Electoral Votes: 272
Bush States
Alabama (9), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (20), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), Wyoming (3)
Total Bush Electoral Votes: 266
Remember how I said I only looked at tight battlegrounds? Yeah, that was my fuck-up.
I forgot to check states like Alaska. Turns out that that was a HUGE fuck up. Since their first presidential election in 1960, Alaska has gone Republican in every election except the Johnson landslide of 1964. This makes it among the most Republican states in the nation. Yeah, my bad. Move along, nothing to see here.
But it does get interesting. Alaska has 3 electoral votes. 272-3=269. 266+3=269.
Ladies and Gentlemen, children of all ages, we have a tie.
If I'm right on every other call. This election is going to the House. And you teenagers thought 2000 was fun.
This is going to get LOTS more interesting.
Permalink
|
|
|
| |
